Marianna Bida | Iryna Ruda
pages: 88-101;
JEL classification: С53, Е27, Н56;
Keywords: potential economic losses from war, real losses, contraction of GDP, fall in GDP volumes;
Abstract: The war affects the socio-economic state of Ukraine and is the cause of the deterioration of the
economic situation of neighboring countries. Under such conditions, there is a need to carry out
assessments of economic losses from the conduct of military operations and forecast the main
economic indicators for the nearest period, taking into account the impact of the war. The purpose of the study is to calculate the losses to the economy, the destruction of residential facilities and critical infrastructure facilities in the first 100 days of the war, the assessment of the
potential volume of the fall in GDP and the calculation of projected fiscal losses. The calculation
of GDP reduction was based on the forecasts of the International Monetary Fund, the World
Bank Group and the Government of Ukraine. The expected amount of GDP reduction is calculated using the GAP-analysis method, based on the forecasts made by these institutions in the prewar period, and the calculation of the level of GDP during the war.
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